2026-27 Project (Marks & Garnett)

Mathematical modelling to optimise partner notification for sexually transmitted infections in low income settings

SUPERVISORY TEAM

Supervisor

Professor Michael Marks at LSHTM
Faculty of Infectious & Tropical Diseases, Department of Clinical Research
Email: michael.marks@lshtm.ac.uk

Co-Supervisor

Professor Geoff Garnett at LSHTM
Faculty of Public Health & Policy, Department of Global Health and Development
Email: geoff.garnett@lshtm.ac.uk

PROJECT SUMMARY

Project Summary

Sexually transmitted infections are a major global public health problem. Management of sexually transmitted infections includes not only treatment of the individual but also identification and treatment of their recent sexual partners (partner notification). In this project the student will develop a mathematical model of sexually transmitted infections in Zimbabwe. This model will be used to understand the impact of partner notification and expedited therapy strategies on the risk of re-infection and onward transmission of STIs. The student will develop skills in model development and calibration and how mathematical models can be used to understand critical public health questions. The student will have access to a range of rich data sources to inform model development and will be supported by a team of supervisors with expertise in STIs, modelling, and public health interventions.

Project Key Words

Sexually transmitted infections, partner notification, mathematical

MRC LID Themes

Global Health
Infectious Disease
Health Data Science

Skills

MRC Core Skills

Quantitative skills
Interdisciplinary skills

Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project:

Implementation and fitting of mathematical models of infectious disease transmission
Calibration of models to real-world data

Routes

Which route/s are available with this project?

1+4 = Yes
+4 = Yes

Possible Master’s programme options identified by supervisory team for 1+4 applicants:

LSHTM – MSc Health Data Science

Full-time/Part-time Study

Is this project available for full-time study? Yes
Is this project available for part-time study? Yes

Location & Travel

Students funded through MRC LID are expected to work on site at their primary institution. At a minimum, all students must meet the institutional research degree regulations and expectations about onsite working and under this scheme they may be expected to work onsite (in-person) more frequently. Students may also be required to travel for conferences (up to 3 over the duration of the studentship), and for any required training for research degree study and training. Other travel expectations and opportunities highlighted by the supervisory team are noted below.

Day-to-day work (primary location) for the duration of this research degree project will be at: LSHTM – Bloomsbury, London

Travel requirements for this project: No specific travel is required but there may be opportunities for travel to Zimbabwe to meet with the broader study team.

Eligibility/Requirements

Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project

Minimum standard institutional eligibility criteria for doctoral study at LSHTM
MSc in a relevant area (unless undertaking as a 1+4 programme)

Other useful information

Potential Industrial CASE (iCASE) conversion? = No

PROJECT IN MORE DETAIL

Scientific description of this research project

Sexually transmitted infections are a major global public health problem. In many low and middle income countries the prevalence of common bacterial sexually, including chlamydia and gonorrhoea, can be as high as 20-30% amongst young adults.

Management of sexually transmitted infections includes not only treatment of the individual presenting to the health care facility (the index case), but also identification and treatment of their recent sexual partners (partner notification). In addition, expedited partner therapy can be provided via the index person.

Treatment of partners is perceived to have both benefits for the index case, by reducing the risk of re-infection, and for the broader population, by reducing the risk of transmission within the broader sexual network. Despite these perceived benefits, partner notification and therapy also carries significant risks including exposing the index case to risks of emotional and physical abuse from their partner. Because of these risks, the uptake of partner notification is very low. For example in Zimbabwe we previously demonstrated that only 5% of index cases notified their partner following an STI diagnosis. At such a low rate of uptake it is unclear whether partner notification will have either individual or wider benefit.

Mathematical models of the population dynamics of STIs allows the role of biology and behaviour in spread of STIs to be explored along with a quantification of the expected direct and indirect effects of interventions. Grounding such models in local sexual network and clinical data allows an explanation of observed infection and disease patterns and builds confidence in modeling insights. In this project we will develop a mathematical model of a sexual network of young people in Zimbabwe and calibrate it to data on sexual behaviours and the prevalence of bacterial STIs using existing data collected by our team. The model will describe the sexual network using individual based simulation, with rules on sex partner formation and dissolution that generate networks consistent with observed partnership and STI patterns in Zimbabwe. Such a model will allow a description of how partner notification and therapy propagates treatment through the sexual partner network and the effects of the index patients social, cultural, behavioural, and clinical characteristics. We will use the model to simulate varying rates of the uptake of partner notification and assess thresholds at which benefits are seen both for the index case and more broadly. The modeling will explore the role of social and cultural context, the impact of diagnostic tools, patient care pathways, and choice of therapeutics on the epidemiology of bacterial sexually transmitted infections, and in an environment with limited resources will explore the optimum intervention mix to improve STI outcomes.

Additional information from the supervisory team

The supervisory team has provided a recording for prospective applicants who are interested in their project. This recording should be watched before any discussions begin with the supervisory team.

Marks & Garnett Recording

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