2026-27 Project (Soremekun & Gafos)

Climate change and youth crime: The impact of temperature on offending in children and young people in the UK

SUPERVISORY TEAM

Supervisor

Dr Shay Soremekun at LSHTM
Faculty of Infectious & Tropical Diseases, Department of Infection Biology
Email: seyi.soremekun@lshtm.ac.uk

Co-Supervisor

Professor Mitzy Gafos at LSHTM
Faculty of Public Health & Policy, Department of Global Health and Development
Email: Mitzy.Gafos@lshtm.ac.uk

PROJECT SUMMARY

Project Summary

Evidence for the impact of ambient heat on children and young people’s (CYP) involvement in crime is limited. However recent small scale studies, and research in the general population suggest rising temperatures due to climate change are likely to have a significant and negative impact in this group. This PhD is an exciting opportunity to directly address this evidence gap using a mixed methods approach to study temperature and crime in CYP in the UK, and directly input into policy. This will primarily involve i) qualitative, participatory modelling exercises with children, youth, police and other stakeholders to understand perceptions of the impact of heat on crime, mechanisms of action and potential climate-related mitigation strategies and ii) quantitative studies of the relationship between temperature and crime rates in youth using longitudinal data from selected UK police forces linked to satellite data on temperature and related measures.

Project Key Words

Climate change, temperature, crime, youth

MRC LID Themes

Global Health
Health Data Science

Skills

MRC Core Skills

Quantitative skills
Interdisciplinary skills

Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project:

Students will develop skills in social science methods, particularly using qualitative techniques like participatory modelling to understand relationships between exposure and outcomes within complex systems, and the use and preparation of climate data, linkages with routine datasets from police forces and quantitative statistical modelling methods. There is an opportunity to also develop skills in production of engaging data visualisations and outputs to appeal to diverse stakeholders and policy makers.

Routes

Which route/s are available with this project?

1+4 = No
+4 = Yes

Possible Master’s programme options identified by supervisory team for 1+4 applicants:

Not applicable

Full-time/Part-time Study

Is this project available for full-time study? Yes
Is this project available for part-time study? No

Location & Travel

Students funded through MRC LID are expected to work on site at their primary institution. At a minimum, all students must meet the institutional research degree regulations and expectations about onsite working and under this scheme they may be expected to work onsite (in-person) more frequently. Students may also be required to travel for conferences (up to 3 over the duration of the studentship), and for any required training for research degree study and training. Other travel expectations and opportunities highlighted by the supervisory team are noted below.

Day-to-day work (primary location) for the duration of this research degree project will be at: LSHTM – Bloomsbury, London

Travel requirements for this project: Potentially travel to field sites in London and Manchester for interviews with stakeholders.

Eligibility/Requirements

Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project

Minimum standard institutional eligibility criteria for doctoral study at LSHTM
Whilst this is a mixed methods PhD, it will be an advantage for students to have a background in a quantitative MSc with experience of the use longitudinal or routine data – e.g. MSc epidemiology, MSc health data science, or MSc public health with a quantitative focus. Students will be able to access LSHTM courses in social science methodology and advanced statistics.

Other useful information

Potential Industrial CASE (iCASE) conversion? = No

PROJECT IN MORE DETAIL

Scientific description of this research project

Evidence indicates increasing temperatures are positively associated with crime rates in the general population, however the relationship between ambient temperature and crime in children and young people (CYP), their risk factors, mechanisms and modifiers have rarely been studied. Crime, and particularly violent crime tends to peak in adolescence and often occurs in very different contexts compared to adult crime, including as a byproduct of gang membership, major physiological and hormonal changes in puberty, and stressful environments including parenting and poverty.

Government and international bodies recognise the urgent need to address youth violence and its wider causes and impacts, with a notable shift towards a recognition that a public health, rehabilitative and restorative approach to tackling crime in CYP is likely to result in more sustained positive impact.

The links between heat and crime in the context of a warming planet are therefore a key growing area of research interest for policy-makers and will be the subject of this PhD.

The project aim is to use a mixed methods approach to understand the relationships between ambient temperature and crime in children and youth in the UK.

The student will first have the opportunity to use cutting edge qualitative research methods based on participatory modelling techniques with children and young people, policing staff and other stakeholders to understand the mechanisms by which rising temperatures may impact on offending in CYP.

The second part of the PhD will use longitudinal crime datasets from UK police forces, and link these to gridded temperature data from satellite programmes (Copernicus Era-5 land) to assess relationships between temperature changes and crime with key disaggregations by ethnicity and socioeconomic status. The student will be actively encouraged to develop the study objectives further according to their areas of interest, and to forge relationships with decision makers in this area from grassroots groups to policy-makers.

Additional information from the supervisory team

The supervisory team has provided a recording for prospective applicants who are interested in their project. This recording should be watched before any discussions begin with the supervisory team.

Soremekun & Gafos Recording

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