2026-27 Project (McQuaid & Saunders & Stagg)
Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis
SUPERVISORY TEAM
Supervisor
Dr Finn McQuaid at LSHTM
Faculty of Epidemiology & Population Health, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics
Email: finn.mcquaid@lshtm.ac.uk
Co-Supervisor
Dr Matthew Saunders at City St George’s
School of Health & Medical Sciences, Department of Medicine
Email: msaunder@sgul.ac.uk
Co-Supervisor
Professor Helen Stagg at LSHTM
Faculty of Epidemiology & Population Health, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and International Health
Email: helen.stagg@lshtm.ac.uk
PROJECT SUMMARY
Project Summary
Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of social, economic and environmental risk factors which are critical in driving the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. However, TB is often neglected in wider climate and health discussions, with a narrow focus on direct environmental and meteorological indicators that could have an effect. As a result there is a critical need for evidence to help elucidate the interconnections between climate change and TB. The aim of this project will be to collate epidemiological and economic data to conduct mathematical modelling analysis of the impact and mitigation of climate change on TB. This will allow us to provide novel insight and evidence to support the development of climate-resilient TB health services, providing detailed estimates of which TB intervention activities to prioritise, and the expected resource requirements and timelines to do so.
Project Key Words
Tuberculosis, Climate change, Modelling, Health Economics
MRC LID Themes
- Infectious Disease
- Global Health
- Health Data Science
Skills
MRC Core Skills
- Quantitative skills
- Interdisciplinary skills
Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project:
- Mathematical modelling skills, including coding
- Economic evaluation skills, including costing and integration of approaches into transmission modelling
- Public health knowledge and communication skills, including with country-level decision-makers and technical assistance organisations.
Routes
Which route/s are available with this project?
- 1+4 = Yes
- +4 = Yes
Possible Master’s programme options identified by supervisory team for 1+4 applicants:
- LSHTM – MSc Climate Change & Planetary Health
- LSHTM – MSc Epidemiology
- LSHTM – MSc Health Data Science
Full-time/Part-time Study
Is this project available for full-time study? Yes
Is this project available for part-time study? Yes
Location & Travel
Students funded through MRC LID are expected to work on site at their primary institution. At a minimum, all students must meet the institutional research degree regulations and expectations about onsite working and under this scheme they may be expected to work onsite (in-person) more frequently. Students may also be required to travel for conferences (up to 3 over the duration of the studentship), and for any required training for research degree study and training. Other travel expectations and opportunities highlighted by the supervisory team are noted below.
Day-to-day work (primary location) for the duration of this research degree project will be at: LSHTM – Bloomsbury, London
Travel requirements for this project: None.
Eligibility/Requirements
Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project
- Minimum standard institutional eligibility criteria for doctoral study at LSHTM
- Undergraduate and/or graduate degree in biological sciences, with evidence of additional quantitative skills
OR
- Undergraduate and/or graduate degree in epidemiology, biostatistics, mathematics, physics, health economics or other quantitative science
Other useful information
- Potential Industrial CASE (iCASE) conversion? = No
PROJECT IN MORE DETAIL
Scientific description of this research project
This project will generate evidence on the potential impact of climate change on TB, using innovative TB models to capture climate-sensitive TB risk factors for countries most likely to be affected. A wide body of evidence exists revealing a concerning association between TB burden and key risk factors likely to be affected by climate change. However, the potential scale of the effect of the climate crisis on TB burden via these pathways is still unclear. We need to know how migration, particularly forced displacement, could drive TB transmission in order to understand how climate-induced displacement could increase risk of new TB infections. We also need to know how changes in undernutrition could affect progression from TB infection to disease in populations, in order to understand how climate-mediated nutritional stress could increase TB burden. Finally, we need to know how health system disruptions and increased vulnerability to TB could affect TB diagnosis and cure, in order to understand how climate-driven crises could increase unsuccessful TB treatment and death.
Project objectives:
To achieve this, this project will develop TB models of climate-vulnerable countries linking climate change to key risk factors, mapping the pathways from climate change to TB burden. The objectives will cover 3 broad areas:
- The student will integrate models of climate-vulnerable populations and known migration routes with TB burden estimates, in order to estimate how migration could drive TB transmission;
- The student will develop BMI-explicit TB transmission models linked to BMI projections, in order to estimate how changes in undernutrition could affect progression from TB infection to disease in populations;
- Finally, The student will generate cohort models of TB diagnosis and treatment linked to risk factors, in order to estimate how health system disruptions and increased vulnerability to TB could affect TB diagnosis and cure. This will allow the student to quantitate and project key potential effects of climate change on TB, which will be used to support decision-making for the development of climate-resilient TB programmes.
Techniques to be used:
Mathematical modelling and epidemiology and/or economic evaluation. The student would be a member of the highly successful TB modelling group, with access to a wealth of expertise and experience in TB modelling, economics and epidemiology in general.
Confirmed availability of databases:
No databases will be required as publicly available data will be used. This will include data collected by the WHO and in the literature.
Risks to the project:
The primary risk is of insufficient useable data, particularly on the link between social determinants and TB disease burden. This will be mitigated by the exploration of parameter space, as well as a focus on tractable and solvable problems, making simplifying assumptions where necessary.
Further reading
Relevant preprints and/or open access articles:
(DOI = Digital Object Identifier)
Other pre-application materials:
Additional information from the supervisory team
The supervisory team has provided a recording for prospective applicants who are interested in their project. This recording should be watched before any discussions begin with the supervisory team.
McQuaid & Saunders & Stagg Recording
MRC LID LINKS
To apply for a studentship: MRC LID How to Apply
Full list of available projects: MRC LID Projects
For more information about the DTP: MRC LID About Us