2025-26 Project (McQuaid & Houben)

Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis

SUPERVISORY TEAM

Supervisor

Dr Finn McQuaid at LSHTM
Email: finn.mcquaid@lshtm.ac.uk

Co-Supervisor

Prof Rein Houben at LSHTM
Email: rein.houben@lshtm.ac.uk

PROJECT SUMMARY

Project Summary

Climate change is likely to exacerbate a range of social, economic and environmental risk factors which are critical in driving the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. However, TB is often neglected in wider climate and health discussions, with a narrow focus on direct environmental and meteorological indicators that could have an effect. As a result there is a critical need for evidence to help elucidate the interconnections between climate change and TB.   

The aim of this project will be to collate  epidemiological and economic data to conduct mathematical modelling analysis of the impact and mitigation of climate change on TB. This will allow us to provide novel insight and evidence to support the development of climate-resiliant TB health services, providing detailed estimates of which TB intervention activities to prioritise, and the expected resource requirements and timelines to do so.

Project Key Words

Tuberculosis, climate change, modelling, health economics

MRC LID Themes

  1. Infectious Disease
  2. Global Health
  3. Health Data Science

Skills

MRC Core Skills

  1. Quantitative skills
  2. Interdisciplinary skills

Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project

Mathematical modelling skills, including coding.   

Economic evaluation skills, including costing and integration of approaches into transmission modelling.   

Public health knowledge and communication skills, including with country-level decision-makers and technical assistance organisations.

Routes

Which route/s are available with this project?

  • 1+4 = Yes
  • +4 = Yes

Possible Master’s programme options identified by supervisory team for 1+4 applicants:

  • LSHTM – MSc Climate Change & Planetary Health
  • LSHTM – MSc Epidemiology
  • LSHTM – MSc Health Data Science

Full-time/Part-time Study

Is this project available for full-time study? Yes
Is this project available for part-time study? Yes

Location & Travel

Students funded through MRC LID are expected to work on site at their primary institution, meeting – at the minimum – the institutional research degree regulations and expectations. Students may also be required to travel for conferences (up to 3 over the duration of the studentship), and for any required training (for research degree study). Other travel expectations and opportunities highlighted by the supervisory team are noted below.

Primary location for duration of this research degree: LSHTM, London

Travel requirements for this project: As the project will be mathematical modelling, the envisaged travel requirements only include potential conference travel.

Eligibility/Requirements

Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project

  • Minimum LSHTM institutional eligibility criteria for doctoral study.
  • Undergraduate and/or graduate degree in biological sciences, with evidence of additional quantitative skills  OR  Undergraduate and/or graduate degree in  epidemiology, biostatistics, mathematics, physics, health economics or other quantitative science

Other useful information

  • Potential Industrial CASE (iCASE) conversion? = No

PROJECT IN MORE DETAIL

Scientific description of this research project

This project will generate evidence on the potential impact of climate change on TB, using innovative TB models to capture climate-sensitive TB risk factors for countries most likely to be affected.   

A wide body of evidence exists revealing a concerning association between TB burden and key risk factors likely to be affected by climate change. However, the potential scale of the effect of the climate crisis on TB burden via these pathways is still unclear    

We need to know how migration, particularly forced displacement, could drive TB transmission in order to understand how climate-induced displacement could increase risk of new TB infections. We also need to know how changes in undernutrition could affect progression from TB infection to disease in populations, in order to understand how climate-mediated nutritional stress could increase TB burden. Finally, we need to know how health system disruptions and increased  vulnerability to TB could affect TB diagnosis and cure, in order to understand how climate-driven crises could increase unsuccessful TB treatment and death.   

1) Project objectives: 
To achieve this, this project will develop TB models of climate-vulnerable countries linking climate change to key risk factors, mapping the pathways from climate change to TB burden. The objectives will cover 3 broad areas: 
i) The student will integrate models of climate-vulnerable populations and known migration routes with TB burden estimates, in order to estimate how migration could drive TB transmission; 
ii) The student will develop BMI-explicit TB  transmission models linked to BMI projections, in order to estimate how changes in undernutrition could affect progression from TB infection to disease in populations; 
iii) Finally, The student will generate cohort models of TB diagnosis and treatment linked to risk factors, in order to estimate how health system disruptions and increased vulnerability to TB could affect TB diagnosis and cure.  This will allow the student to quantitate and project key potential effects of climate change on TB, which will be used to support decision-making for the development of climate-resilient TB programmes.   

2) Techniques to be used: 
Mathematical modelling and epidemiology and/or economic evaluation. The student would be a member of the highly successful TB modelling group, with access to a wealth of expertise and experience in TB modelling, economics and epidemiology in general.   

3) Confirmed availability of databases: 
No databases will be required as publicly available data will be used. This will include data collected by the WHO and in the literature.    

4) Risks to the project: 
The primary risk is of insufficient useable data, particularly on the link between social determinants and TB disease burden. This will be mitigated by the exploration of parameter space, as well as a focus on tractable and solvable problems, making simplifying assumptions where necessary.

Further reading

Relevant preprints and/or open access articles:
(DOI = Digital Object Identifier)

Additional information from the supervisory team

The supervisory team has provided a recording for prospective applicants who are interested in their project. This recording should be watched before any discussions begin with the supervisory team.

McQuaid-Houben recording

MRC LID LINKS

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