2025-26 Project (Foss & Ismail)

Developing a health-specific framework to validate system dynamics and agent-based models used in public health modelling

SUPERVISORY TEAM

Supervisor

Professor Anna Foss at LSHTM
Email: anna.foss@lshtm.ac.uk

Co-Supervisor

Dr Sharif Ismail at LSHTM
Email: Sharif.ismail@lshtm.ac.uk

PROJECT SUMMARY

Project Summary

This is an exciting opportunity for someone keen to use their mathematical, computer programming and statistical skills for improving the rigour of models used in public health while developing further transferable technical skills in model validation and stakeholder engagement during the PhD to aid career progression.     

Model validation is a ‘hot topic’ since models are growing in complexity and it is important that we ensure these models are reliable, robust, credible, useful and align as much as possible to reality (while also being transparent so that they are reproduceable and open for scrutiny).   

The successful applicant will develop a health-specific framework to validate system dynamics and agent-based models used within the context of public health modelling.

Project Key Words

System dynamics, agent-based, mathematical modelling, validation

MRC LID Themes

  1. Health Data Science
  2. Global Health

Skills

MRC Core Skills

  1. Quantitative skills
  2. Interdisciplinary skills

Skills we expect a student to develop/acquire whilst pursuing this project

Model validation methods for system dynamics modelling and agent-based modelling.   
Qualitative stakeholder engagement skills.

Routes

Which route/s are available with this project?

  • 1+4 = Yes
  • +4 = Yes

Possible Master’s programme options identified by supervisory team for 1+4 applicants:

  • LSHTM – MSc Health Data Science

Full-time/Part-time Study

Is this project available for full-time study? Yes
Is this project available for part-time study? Yes

Location & Travel

Students funded through MRC LID are expected to work on site at their primary institution, meeting – at the minimum – the institutional research degree regulations and expectations. Students may also be required to travel for conferences (up to 3 over the duration of the studentship), and for any required training (for research degree study). Other travel expectations and opportunities highlighted by the supervisory team are noted below.

Primary location for duration of this research degree: LSHTM, London

Travel requirements for this project: 5-day long field visits to Brazil in Years 2 and 4; European conferences in Years 3 and 4; 3-month placement in Austria in Year 3.

Eligibility/Requirements

Particular prior educational requirements for a student undertaking this project

  • Minimum LSHTM institutional eligibility criteria for doctoral study.
  • MSc in Health Data Science / Epidemiology / Public Health or similar.  
  • BSc in Mathematics / Engineering or Programming / Computer Science or Statistics or similar (or Sociology conditional on also having coding experience – see below).   
  • Preferably experience coding in R or Python or similar (and/or experience using AnyLogic or Stella software), especially if background is in Sociology.   
  • Preferably some experience of qualitative research.    
  • Preferably some experience or knowledge relating to the Brazilian context.

Other useful information

  • Potential Industrial CASE (iCASE) conversion? = No

PROJECT IN MORE DETAIL

Scientific description of this research project

1. Project objectives: 
System dynamics models (SDMs) and agent-based models (ABMs) are becoming increasingly complex to explore complex public health questions. However, there is a lack of general consensus on expected standards for validating such models. Scrieciu et al (2022) have a broad view of model validation, developing a ten-facet framework for model validity when investigating complex sustainability issues in modelling. They highlight the importance of ensuring that these models are reliable, robust, credible, useful and align as much as possible to reality (while also being transparent so that they are reproduceable and open for scrutiny). They call for others to apply this framework to models from different contexts as case examples.    

We are developing a SDM and an ABM for an ongoing ESRC-funded project (REACH). We would like to undertake a broader and more rigorous model validation exercise, beyond the scope of REACH, to further increase the usability and uptake of these models.   

This PhD aims to develop a health-specific framework to validate SDM and ABM models used in a public health context.  

The specific objectives are to: 
(i) Apply the ten-facet framework developed by Scrieciu et al (2022) to the SDM developed within the REACH project for Brazil. 
(ii) Apply the ten-facet framework developed by Scrieciu et al (2022) to the ABM developed within the REACH project for Brazil. 
(iii) Critically reflect on the application of the framework to these health-specific models, and suggest detailed tailoring required for the framework to be both suitably specific to health while also sufficiently generalisable to other public health SDMs and ABMs.   

2. Techniques to be used: 
The work will be interdisciplinary, including mathematical, computational and statistical methods alongside empirical engagement with stakeholders through qualitative methods and bidirectional knowledge transfer. Specific techniques will include structural and parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, focus group discussions, interviews, etc.     

3. Confirmed availability of any required databases or specialist materials: 
The SDM and ABM are being built as part of the ongoing REACH project running 1 October 2023 – 30 September 2027, and due to be programmed by July 2025 so ready for the PhD student on arrival. Associated software and training is included in the attached budget.   

4. Potential risks to the project and plans for their mitigation: 
The challenge may be creating a health-specific framework for model validity, from REACH models, that is generalisable to all public health SDMs and ABMs. To mitigate this, an online workshop will be arranged with public health modellers to disseminate the health-specific framework, inviting them to apply this to their broad range of health-specific SDMs and ABMs and then provide feedback (via online interviews) to improve the framework. As another mitigation strategy for this challenge and/or in case of delays in creating the SDM/ABM in the ongoing REACH project, the PhD student could undertake this work using our SDM and ABM built previously for the MRC-funded COSMIC project.   

References:  Şerban Scrieciu et al (2022). An Inquiry into Model Validity When Addressing Complex Sustainability Challenges. Complexity ID 1193891. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/1193891

Further reading

Relevant preprints and/or open access articles:
(DOI = Digital Object Identifier)

Additional pre-application materials:

Additional information from the supervisory team

The supervisory team has provided a recording for prospective applicants who are interested in their project. This recording should be watched before any discussions begin with the supervisory team.

Foss-Ismail recording

MRC LID LINKS

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